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Topic Review (Newest First)
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| Mar 19th, 2003 07:56 AM | ||
| mburbank | Yeah, turns out discussion of probability theory is a really hot ticket in grief counseling these days. Victims families seem to find it really comforting. | |
| Mar 18th, 2003 10:02 PM | ||
| KevinTheOmnivore | I for one am psyched about the lecture on probabilities. It's always useful to equate human suffering with percentages and numbers, IMO. | |
| Mar 18th, 2003 01:20 PM | ||
| mburbank |
"He, Ronnie Raygun, me, and 66% of the U.S." -Pantydude I may have read the poll question wrong. I missed the phrasing about aboslute surety without doubt or regret. You know, the kind of surety about life or death decisions only a complete simpleton could have? "It's not for you to say that someone can't handle freedom or doesn't want it. " -Naldo A.) It was the statement and not the 'freedom' I was calling into question. If Anyone besides you was capable of missing that, I apologize. B.) Even if I was questioning 'freedom' , which I was not, it's a very fluid word. I rather think that in their freedom they'll find civil war and military dictatorship with us as the rulers. In any case It's not for you to say what anyone besides yourself will feel comforted by when their loved ones die. And of course "every American wants secuirty" I believe invasion of Iraq will decrease mine. I believe you are deliberately pretending to miss points. It's fine for you to disagree, but pretending you don't understand... well that's a lot like lieing. |
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| Mar 18th, 2003 12:50 PM | ||
| Ronnie Raygun |
"First of all, I'm pleased you personally would find this comforting, but a lot of folks in both countrys may not." It's not for you to say that someone can't handle freedom or doesn't want it. Also, every American want security. |
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| Mar 18th, 2003 12:50 PM | ||
| Anonymous |
"But you and W share unshakable faith in your rightness. W said that as much as anyone could be at peace with these decisions, he is at peace." He, Ronnie Raygun, me, and 66% of the U.S. I'm not a big fan of polls, but if you're going to look at one, I think Gallup would be it - http://www.gallup.com/poll/releases/pr030318.asp |
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| Mar 18th, 2003 12:26 PM | ||
| CaptainBubba |
nm. srry for bumping. :/ Max said what I was going to say. 
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| Mar 18th, 2003 11:28 AM | ||
| mburbank |
"No. But a free Iraq and security for America will. " First of all, I'm pleased you personally would find this comforting, but a lot of folks in both countrys may not. And that's IF I accept your outcome. I don't. A 'free' Iraq? That remains to be seen. There are three ethnic groups there that have little love for each other and hundreds of years of history of killing each other. There are multiple tribes with multiple vendettas, plus neighbors not to mention the US with their own agendas. Do I hope for free Iraq? Absolutely. Do I think it's a given? Absolutely not. Security for America? A.) NO proof sadam has any wmd. NO ties to al Quaeda. CIA bets our attack will increase the chances of wmd, if your right and they do exist, going to terrorists if we invade. The only shred of 'intelligence' suggesting nuclear program turns out to be forged nigerian documents sold to the Italians by parties unknown. The CIA currently thinks the most likely candidates are Iraqi dissidents who we currently TRUST for our information on the threat of Iraq. So I see this as REDUCED security for America. But you and W share unshakable faith in your rightness. W said that as much as anyone could be at peace with these decisions, he is at peace. To my mind he might as well have said "I'm a pretty shallow guy." |
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| Mar 18th, 2003 11:06 AM | ||
| Ronnie Raygun |
"I'm not really sure of the value of a probability analysis based on a badly flawed UN resolution will be of much comfort to either suffering Iraqis or the family of dead american servicemen." No. But a free Iraq and security for America will. "Hey, let's go to Japan and slap the sushi out of their mouths ... damn raw fish eating pagans!" - Kellychaos We already did that about 60 years ago.......and it worked!!! Now they are a democratic ally that wants peace and brings wealth and prosperity to millions. Rax, "i think we have a national problem of looking for others to blame our actions on.." Oh....Yeah! I forgot that we Americans blew up the WTC....**note sarcasm** "especially when the president hasn't learned his third grade lessons" He has an MBA from Harvard. You haven't learned yours.... " .. Georgie.. you get a time out for saying saddam made you do it!" All Saddam had to do is abide by 1441 and there would have been no war. Unfortunatly, The U.S. and Britian were pretty much the only ones to give him a great incentive to while France, Germany and others gave him comfort. "Saddam MADE ME DO IT! thats fucking PATHETIC!!!!!!!!!" ....then your problem is with 1441 which passed the U.N. security counsel 15 to ZERO! "hey i got a gun pointed at your head.. if you say you are working against me one more time i will be absolved of all responsibility for pulling the trigger. HOW THE FUCK DOES THAT MAKE ANY SENSE!!!?" It makes perfect sense... "www.votetoimpeach.org !!" A joke and helps the Conservative cause. Keep it up. "oh yea.. and there's americans in baghdad.. will anyone be pissed when i make signs that read BUSH IS BOMBING HIS OWN PEOPLE! ?" He will be....so what? If you jumped out in front of my car while I was driving down the road, I would probably run you over. Who is at fault? YOU ARE!!! |
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| Mar 18th, 2003 11:00 AM | ||
| Anonymous |
I think you might all enjoy this, if you haven't seen it already. It really is one of my favorites. It's a couple of American kids playing a video game of sorts with some Afghan terrorists. Look how fun it is. It's like a new installment of GTA. http://www.k5cxo.net/ac130gunship.htm |
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| Mar 18th, 2003 09:53 AM | ||
| mburbank |
Yeah, Bubba, I'd say that your whole argument is completely devalued by spelling errors. Actually, you pretty much said everything I was going to say. I may be wrong, but I think Hinky would be much less enamored of probability theory if he had to think about it lieing underneath the rubble of what was once his home as opposed to cozily on his couch in his underwear. Or I could be wrong. He could calculate the probability of death by blood loss versus death by dehydration and plot it against possibility of rescue. That would probably take his mind off the agony. You quote the original UN resolution as if it was an immutable law of physics instead of a decision arrived at by people and subject to change. I'm not sure how you felt on 9/11, but I'd hazard to guess that when multiple buildings get blown up in Iraq in a couple of days and people burn and jump out of buildings and lose limbs and loved ones, they'll feel the same way. I'm not really sure of the value of a probability analysis based on a badly flawed UN resolution will be of much comfort to either suffering Iraqis or the family of dead american servicemen. |
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| Mar 18th, 2003 09:31 AM | ||
| Anonymous | I find it difficult to believe you are majoring in anything, considering you can't spell concise, illogical, incorporate, or my personal favorite, mathematical. | |
| Mar 17th, 2003 04:58 PM | ||
| CaptainBubba |
I'm majoring in Actuarial science. You are outclassed mother fucker. As for your dependence on mathmatical probability in matters of politics: No. :/ You are trying to reduce an issue to a mathmatical system that is far simpler (math is logical, simple, consise) than that of national diplomacy, which depends on the decisions and actions of men (men are ilogical, complex, violent, dumb) who undoubtedly deviate from any mathmatical conclusion you could draw. Math is everywhere, and I like that you try to encorporate it into real life. But at least for matters such as the impending war, its simply not applicable. |
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| Mar 17th, 2003 03:55 PM | ||
| Anonymous |
Do you even understand probability? I have studied probability for years. My grasp of it is certainly more in depth than that. That is merely the formula (the only accepted formula at that) for Practical Probability which is the methos in which what actually has happened is studied, rather than what should happen or what might happen. The probability in this instance is estimated by counting the number of times it has already occured in a certain number of attempts. You are barking up the wrong tree here dumb ass. Did you even READ the rest of the post? If you would like, I can start a thread tomorrow which outlines the concepts of probability, and I can basically teach you over a period of a month or so how it works. We can discuss equally likely outcomes, theoretical, practical, binomial, polynomial, and numerous other formulas for probability. But, I would imaging you discount those, beiung as it is that you believe in decision making without substance. |
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| Mar 17th, 2003 03:43 PM | ||
| CaptainBubba |
Theory it is most certainly not!  Just look at the crazy in its eyes!  On another note: your keen grasp on probability really impressed me! I really liked this part: Quote:
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| Mar 17th, 2003 03:26 PM | ||
| FS |
Nice topic title. It'll look great on the poster of the first movie made about the current situation. Still, don't sound the alarm till the first bomb has dropped. We've known this war to be inevitable for months now, and all that's happened today is that someone set the clock ahead. |
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| Mar 17th, 2003 03:26 PM | ||
| Anonymous | Or you could learn how to make a logical decision based on laws of probability. But, I like your ignorant X=Saddam - Kill it theory - its simply brilliant. | |
| Mar 17th, 2003 03:23 PM | ||
| CaptainBubba |
OOO!!! ...MATHY! I'm gonna make one too! X is equal to IRAQ. OMG THAT X IS ONE CRAZY MOFO! LETS KILL IT!
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| Mar 17th, 2003 03:05 PM | ||
| Anonymous |
IMO, that is not neccesarily accurate. There have been a series of events which have narrowed the choices down to military action. If a decision flow chart had been mapped out from the point of origin, which I believe was the genesis of Resolution 1441, and was chronicled to this point, I believe peace would have been ruled out long ago. At each critical point, where a certain decision was made, the probability for peace decrease, while the probability for military action increased. Practical Probability Theory Probability = number of times result has occured / number of trials performed This theory can be used to trend responses and base future decisions on actual probability trends. Here is a simple "Equally Likely Outcome" formula often used in probability calculations: Probability of Result = number of outcomes yielding predicted result / total number of equally likely outcomes. Although quite a simple formula to understand, it is the basis of probability computations in most cases where multiple results can occur. However, there are many variables which come into play when computing probability. Complex problems can often be solved by using the idea of combinations and permutations. For instance: ABC BCA CAB ACB BAC CBA There is only one combination of variables A,B, and C. No matter what order you place these in, they are the same three variables. However, there are six permutations with each different order representing a different permutation. So....... Take the following example: A = Iraq following original slated disarmament plans dictated in UN Resolution 1441 which would result in a peaceful resolution B = Iraq violating original slated disarmament plans dictated in UN Resolution 1441 which would yield a negative result, and mandate use of military action to enforce said resolution Although these were the only two outcomes originally available, political agendas, diplomacy, etc. added new variables - just a hypothetical (the number of variables will be incorrect, but the theory will stand) C = Schedule extension D = Permission for Saddam to restate his inventory E = New inspections sites added Ok.... here is how the probability of peace decreased and eventually forced this decision. Although other decisions can be made at this point, they would merely be adding unnecessary combinations, which would exponentially increase permutations, and, thus leave us in a permanent stagnant state of negotiations. UN Resolution 1441 A --- A In this scenario, A would yield a peaceful result A B---A ---- B ---- Military ---- C ---- This path repeats until new combination is created by removing a variable, namely C, or A is achieved, yielding peaceful resolution ---- D ---- This path repeats until new combination is created by removing a variable, namely C or D, or A is achieved, yielding peaceful resolution ---- E ---- This path repeats until new combination is created by removing a variable, namely C or E, or A is achieved, yielding peaceful resolution As the combinations available are reduced to A and B again, the number of permutations are reduced to two potential outcomes, A or B By using the Practical Probability theory, you must eliminate A as a valid variable, leaving only B. In other words, peace has always been a viable alternative for Saddam. Each decision he made decreased permutations for an amicable solution, while diplomacy on the UN and US' part increased combinations and permutations. Basically, you can comput possibilities very easily, particularly in binomial problems, using Pascal's Triangle. So, I don't enjoy war at all. But, I do believe it is the only viable solution available at this point by using mathematics. The laws of Probability are proven. By exhausting all other routes, we have come down to the last. |
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| Mar 17th, 2003 02:43 PM | ||
| ranxer |
"Saddam has chosen this war" i think we have a national problem of looking for others to blame our actions on.. especially when the president hasn't learned his third grade lessons .. Georgie.. you get a time out for saying saddam made you do it! dammit its hard to raise kids in this nation when we have a moron as commander in chief!! Saddam MADE ME DO IT! thats fucking PATHETIC!!!!!!!!! hey i got a gun pointed at your head.. if you say you are working against me one more time i will be absolved of all responsibility for pulling the trigger. HOW THE FUCK DOES THAT MAKE ANY SENSE!!!? www.votetoimpeach.org !! oh yea.. and there's americans in baghdad.. will anyone be pissed when i make signs that read BUSH IS BOMBING HIS OWN PEOPLE! ? [/url] |
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| Mar 17th, 2003 02:30 PM | ||
| kellychaos |
Quote:
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| Mar 17th, 2003 02:04 PM | ||
| mburbank |
And Naldo (and you for that matter, Hinky) have demonstrated a certain rhetorical bit champing that illicits the Popcorn and Soda metaphor, as does W's moronic, simplistic "You're with us or against us" grandstanding. It's nice to assume that the administration really doies see this as absolutely a tragic last resort, but apart from the few (very few) combat veterans among them, I've seen precious little of the reluctant soldier and an awful lot of Jingoistic, Imperial saber rattling. |
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| Mar 17th, 2003 01:39 PM | ||
| Anonymous |
Quote:
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| Mar 17th, 2003 01:02 PM | ||
| sspadowsky |
Not sure how that double opst happened. Sorry. ________ Tadashi yamashina |
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| Mar 17th, 2003 01:02 PM | ||
| sspadowsky |
THis war is boooollsheeeet. If there is a real danger, it is North Korea, not Iraq. Iraq. is. not. a. fucking. danger. Period. ________ Electric cigarettes |
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| Mar 17th, 2003 12:57 PM | ||
| Anonymous |
It amazes me how everyone on this board assumes that because someone is in favor of taking military action in this situation, that they must, by default, enjoy war. Frankly, it makes me sick that after all the human race has created, persevered through, and adapted, we still even have wars. However, I can also understand the logic behind war in this instance. Saddam has chosen this war, and has been given far too many chances to stop it. His reaction has demonstrated the key characteristic behind, at the very leats, my support for military action. He has proven time and time again that the people of Iraq matter very little to him. I pray not only for our soldiers, but the lives of all those who do not deserve this war, and I genuinely believe Iraq will be a better place when it is done. |
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