[mburbank]

I think there's real possability of the Afghan elections blowing up. The question is, unless that blow-up is really massive, how will the point come across.

I think there will be several levels in the election. Kharzai will win in the capital, which is all that's really under his control in any case, and since the administration has been sucsessfully presenting Kabul as Afghanistan for months now, tht will be confusing.

Outside of Kabul, in places where elections actually take place, and where warlords have been promised control, near unanimous Karzai votes. Will american media realize that unanamous votes are a sign that the elections didn't work? Who knows?

Saddest of all, is that this election means very little compared to their parlimentary election, which isn't going to be held until well after our election. I think in the long run, the best these elections can be is a teeny weeny baby step that's meaningful mostly sor it's symbolism. But symbolism is more than enough for W. to run with, as he's proved in Iraq.

And suppose Karzai gets killed election day, which doesn't exactly seem impossible. Would that constitute a whole sale blow up? Are they positioned to recpover from a front runner getting killed?

I think there's a slightly even chance that these elections will be a disaster (I mean, since we've gotten so much right so far as fars as nation building goes.)