[mburbank]

"These aren't Iraqis leading the charge"

That, my friend, is a seriously debated topic. Who they are and how many of them and why they're fighting is something that a lot of people have a lot of different ideas about.

And what about the Kurds, who may not like loosing autonomy after ten years? I don't think these folks are incapable of democracy inherently, but I'm not sure that's what anyone has in mind for them in any case.

I think if Sunnis have no way to vote and Shiites sweep the election, (which seems likely to me) it's going to be unlikely the Sunnis will say "Oh, well, it's all for the greater good of Iraq".

Maybe the shiites will work really hard to give the Sunnis a fair shake and find a way for the Kurds to be sort of autonomus. But so far they can't even get a police force together. My guess is Alawi is going to try to make what we did in Faluja look like a sunday school tea party, becaue that's traditionally how power has been solidified in Iraq.

I would really, really like for something good to come out of this. I'll just be hugely surprised.