[mburbank]

Okay, Rumsfled pandemic profiteering aside.

Many strains of influenza start in all sorts of different animals, undergo a mutation and species jump. Swine flu for instance, is so called beacuse it started in pigs. Birds are somewhat more dangerous vectors, in that in addition to thir widespread trade as food animals, they migrate. Mostly pigs don't do that.

Influenza mutates very easily. AIDS, well known for it's opropensity to mutate does not do so half as well.

Because of it's high propensity to mutate and species jump, strains of Influenze humans have little or no immunities for that blossom into pandemics are statistical inevitabilities. Much more so than say, large scale terrorist attacks which are not statistical inevitablities. Pandemics occur less frequently than really big ass earthquakes, but three or four a century is not an outrageous prediction.

There is no way of knowing if the current avian flu will mutate and jump to humans. The widespread and growing of Avian flu in both domestic and migratory birds makes it potentially more dangerous than a new strain of influenze appearing in say, Tazmanian Devils. Preparing public health infrastructure to try to cope with an in as much as possible contain whatever tthe next Pandemic strikes me as a rasonable investment.

Sars and West Nile were unknowns, and the respons to both was overblown. Avian Flu is influenza. If people choose to panic, that's unfortunate as it won't help. But the degree of attention this is finally getting is entirely appropriatte.