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Originally Posted by mburbank
I think only when folks are disgusted enough for polls to reveal significant margins do D's have a chance of getting back in the rivers seat and immediately seeing if they can be as or more corrupt than the R's have been.
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Yeah, but you're forgetting that these are very popular, very rich incumbents in previously very safe districts, where they won by 15-20 percentage points. Now they're running even with unknowns. Think of it like this, in terms of the CA-50 race.
CA-50 is an incredibly conservative district. Duke Cunningham won it by 22% in 2004. Now, a new Republican is running for the seat against Democrat Francine Busby.
Republicans have spent close to 7 million dollars on this seat, and are still only running about 4% ahead of Busby. That's down from 20% with an expenditure of $1.1 million. By comparison, the Democrats have only spent about $3.5 million. If $7 million gets you that slim a margin in that safe a district, imagine how much you'd need to spend in districts with Republican Congresspersons where the population leans Democratic!
The bottom line is, Republicans do not have $7 million to give to each race that is close. They've only raised about $8 million in the past two months, compared to $16.1 million for Democrats. They will not have the funds to keep these seats as competitive as they are now.