[GAsux]

Combine Iran's continued defiance with regards to their nulear ambitions and couple it with what is at least tacit support of the insurgency in Iraq and you've got some serious issues to deal with. If the Iraq situation wasn't already on the table, I think a lot of people would be changing their tune and saying, this is a serious problem we need to deal with. The Iraq situation has damaged credibility not only operationaly in terms of sapping manpower and funding, but also in terms of prestige. Having seen what's gone on in Iraq for the last few years, public support for ANY military intervention ANYWHERE at this point will be a tough road.

And that's unfortunate because I think the Iranian situation, posturing or otherwise, is 194 times more sinister and has broader international implications than anything that happened in Iraq pre-war.

That said, I'm significantly less convinced that anyone in the D.C. area thinks that military intervention is a desirable course of action at this point. It would be niave to think that there is no planning for such eventualitis, but I think it's a long way from folks in decision making seats saying you know, we need to drop some bombs on those people.

As for the draft, this conversation comes up at every sign of conflict, small or large. This administration does not have the political juice in Congress or in public support to pull off draft legislation, even if they wanted to. Conflict in Iran would involve a heavy does of Air Force and Navy assets with minimal involvement from ground troops anyway.

Unlike the Iraq war, there's no reason to try to take and hold ground in Iran. There's no desire to change their government, other than an attempt at regime change which is all nicely handled via airpower. IF a military action became warranted, even if via some kind of Gulf of Tonkin scenario, you can bank on seeing a heavy dose of cruise missiles aimed at every conceivable significant target in Iran.

My thoughts, anyway.


P.S., no need to overfly Turkey, as the Turks might be reluctant to approve anyway. There's a reason we moved all our assets including C2 stuff into Bahrian, Qatar, Oman, etc and only half of it was because of an effort to reduce the footprint in Saudi Arabia. It's a quick hop across the Gulf with nothing in between. Not to mention easy Naval access.