A Democratic Congressional Majority in 2006

[JMHX]

Six months ago I would not have thought it possible, the idea of Democrats taking back the Senate or the House. Now, it seems, that idea is not out of the realm of possibility. Republicans have fumbled over the past year, and things aren't looking much better for them as they head into the months that count. Democrats hold fundraising leads, and host competitive candidates in previously solid-Republican seats. Take a look at the Senate:


Tennessee: Unknown vs Harold Ford, Jr. (D) - The race to succeed Majority Leader Bill Frist has a torn Republican field against popular moderate Democrat Harold Ford. This one's going to be a tossup, but it's much better than in 2000.

Pennsylvania: Rick Santorum (R) vs Bob Casey, Jr. (D) - Santorum, previously the darling of religious conservatives, is trailing moderate Casey by at least two dozen points, in what is widely seen as a gift to the Democrats in November.

Ohio: Mike DeWine (R) vs Sherrod Brown (D) - Ethical scandals in Ohio have been dragging down the incumbent DeWine, who now trails Sherrod Brown by three to four points. If Brown runs a tight race, he has the potential to pick up the seat for the Democrats.

Montana: Conrad Burns (R) vs Jon Tester (D) - In the heart of Republican territory, incumbent Burns is running five to seven points behind populist Jon Tester, who bested a better-funded Democrat in the primary and has garnered national support.

Rhode Island: Lincoln Chafee (R) vs Sheldon Whitehouse (D) - Chafee is a liberal Republican, but his floppiness and lack of spirit are holding him down. Whitehouse, previously a relative unknown, is ahead of Chafee by three to four points, and has been gaining in every poll. Whitehouse is also outrasing Chafee and garning the endorsements of organizations previously pro-Chafee.

Missouri: Jim Talent (R) vs Claire McCaskill (D) - McCaskill nearly won the governorship of Missouri in 2004, but her loss now seems like a blessing. McCaskill and her moderate positions are besting incumbent Talent by two to three points, depending on the polling service. Even mainline Republican pollsters SurveyUSA have McCaskill ahead.

Virginia: George Allen (R) vs Jim Webb (D) - A relatively unknown former Secretary of the Navy under Ronald Reagan is giving George Allen, the darling of arch-conservatives, a run for his money. Webb, despite being less funded than the hugely wealthy Republican challenger, is within five points in every poll released.


Winning these seven seats will give Democrats a majority. Winning six will allow for a working majority, since the Independent from Vermont caucuses with the Democrats. Things look good for Democratic control of the Senate. The stem-cell veto only adds to the feeling that Republicans are increasingly out of touch, with their top man standing against his own party.

Good news keeps on rolling in.