COUNTDOWN TO WAR WITH N.KOREA

[mburbank]

SEOUL (Reuters) - Top U.S. arms negotiator John Bolton described North Korean leader Kim Jong-il on Thursday as a tyrannical dictator who lived like royalty while jailing thousands and keeping many hungry in a "hellish nightmare."


There is no way this speech was made without administration approval and direction. Not that anything isn't true in this statement, but this is an early drumbeat test balloon. It's designed to provoke and true or not has little point beyond provocation.

I think this is a very dangerous strategy in that
A.) Credability problems caused by the Iraq war will make it much harder for the administration to move public opinion to a war footing
B.) Kim il is far more volatile than Sadam was, and in a far more cpapable position to inflict preemptive damage if and when he decides Washington has made up it's mind.
C.) The lesson Iraq has sent N. Korea is if you want to inflict punishment on the US before being destroyed, the sooner the better.

Sadam had no choice but to sit there while we rattled our sabers and wait for a war the administration decided to wage and intended to wage all through the lead up. If Kim Il comes to the conclusion that's what we're doing now, he will have no motivation NOT to strike.

Meanwhile, China is using the opportunity to gear up for 'reunification' (a word they use the way W. uses 'regime change' with Taiwan. Why would they do this when it means war with the US? Simple. They intend to use US non interference in Taiwan as a bargaining chip for supporting us in N.Korea. Active support and pressure from China, including an exit strategy for Kim Il, is the only way I can think of to avert Nuclear conflict in Korea. W may not be willing to trade Taiwan to avoid aa nuclear exchange, but it's certainly reasonable of the Chinese to expect he might be willing to deal.

That's the pit fall of being the worlds only super power. You can't expect the worlds other powers not to take advantage of your problems.

Our strategic situation vis a vis N. Korea right now is direct blow back from the Iraq war.

What the HELL is a speech like the one quoted above meant to achieve? Convince Kim Il we're serious? He ALREADY thinks that. That's what makes him so dangerous right now, that's WHY his nuclear weapons program is not only fast track, but out in the open. Because he thinks we're serious.