We're all watching the president, right?

[GAsux]

I didn't watch the speech but I read the bulk of the text. Some interesting points.

First, I find it ironic now that public debate has clearly shifted the focus of the 9-11 commission to the agencies and AWAY from the White House that Bush would indicate that he's looking forward to the report and its recommendations to help improve the agencies. Just a week ago they were rallying around the cause deflecting Clarke's criticism of THEM.

Second, I found it interesting the he noted that the violence in Fallujah was neither a popular uprising nor a civil war but rather a "power grab". He's probably absolutely right. That is likely a very accurate assessment of what's happening in Fallujah. But he stated it as if the "power grab" were somehow LESS significant and less violent than the other two. We have a problem. A big one. Whether you call it a donkey show, an uprising, or a "power grab".

In addition, it hasn't gotten too much press as of late but I beleive that we've come to a bit of a stand off with Sadr and it's not over. The man obviously has some kind of loyal following, even if it's only local. He's managed to inspire a substantial amount of violence in a short period of time. I do not believe that we intend to negotiate with him, outside of the short term. He is now cornered. If and when the "showdown" occurs, Sadr is in the perfect position for martyrdom. Killing him will only lead to larger unrest. I believe it may not be far off.

Finally, Bush's chapioning of the transition to Iraqi led government seems less about handing over power and more about wiping our hands clean of the mess. All this "self rule" and "self determination" nonsense seems insincere. Does anyone honestly think that if we relenquish overt control of the government and more importantly, the security functions of the nation that outright civil war won't shortly follow?

There are surely more Sadr's throughout the country, all vying for a piece of the pie. In this sense it seems very much like Afghanistan. Coalition governments among groups and clans that have absolutely detested one another for a century have little possibility of success. Without a U.S. security apparatus, chances for success and stability seem futile.