Brace yourself for the Iran War

[KevinTheOmnivore]

Originally Posted by FurankuS

With the recent elections in Iraq the possibility of the country splitting is pretty high (especially since it looks like the Sunni Muslims aren't going to pull through). If Iraq split:

The Shiites would most likely merge/ be conquered by Iran (the badness of this should be obvious)

I think it's pretty unlikely that the Iraqi Shiites would simply hand themselves over to Iran. I don't think the high number of Shiites who voted last month simply did that with a hope of getting annexed by Iran.

As for Iran "conquering" the Shiite sections of Iraq, I think that's out of the question.

The Kurds have already essentially voted for a regional governing body for themselves. I think they would like their own nation, but I think they also realize that working with the Shiite electorate to establish a democratic Iraq is a very good first step. I don't think the Kurds will feel compelled to squabble with Turkey over land if they feel that the nation of Iraq could serve as their potential homeland.

So if civil war breaks out in Iraq, Iran becomes VERY important.

I don't really see that as a key reason to worry about Iran. I'd say their undemocratic practices, their nuclear capacity, as well as their history of state-sponsored terrorism should be cause for more alarm than whether or not Iran has a key role in the hypothetical impending civil war in Iraq.