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Originally Posted by mburbank
What we did was open the gate and then sit in front of it. I don't think we caused it, but, and here's my main point, I honestly, sincerely don't think we can do anything positive about it. think any side we lend any help to is immediately tainted by it
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Well for starters, as far as civil war goes, this is the Charlie Browniest of them all. The media and the Daily Kos keep promising me a civil war, and these damn Iraqis keep letting me down.
Secondly, let's putting on our thinking caps, and speculate on what might happen were we to leave. I have been reading some Lefty blogs, and I've seen some screwy ideas. The best was that as soon as we leave, all Iraqis would get behind Grand Ayatollah Sistani, and Iraq would rebuild itself and live in peace with gumdrops and rainbows off of their oil revenue. Do we need to even talk about how stupid an idea that is?
My guess is that the Kurds would leave the table immediately. Why stay? They already have a self-sufficient government, militias, and culture. They will walk.
My guess is that the regions that have the oil will grab the oil, and hire thugs, terrorists, and stupid kids to protect it (or maybe American contractors!). This means no centralized oil revenue running through Baghdad, no viable tax foundation, no country of Iraq.
Other portions of iraq will fall even further into poverty and violence. And where we pull out, the Mullahs offering Islam and tonic water cures will step in. So will Iran. So will Al Qaeda. So will every shady radical who wants an unstable place that even the Americans won't touch. Meet post-Soviet Afghanistan.
That's just one speculation. And once we do that, and everything that has been gained there collapses, we'll probably feel really good about the $10 billion/month we're paying now.
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