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mburbank · #1

Suppose growing Muslim anger of the war leads to "Regime Change" in Pakistan, thereby placing Nuclear weapons in the hands of Ilsamic extremists?

Is this a serious enough contingency to be worth planning for?

If so, what could we do about it?

If it happens, what should we do?

James · #2

Well, forgive me for being a little lost here. But, how would those weapons find their way into such hands?

mburbank · #3

Islamic extremism is very popular in Pakistan.

Pakistan has Nuclear weapons and long history of regime (their own) change via military coup. The current regime, for intnce, came to power in a military coup.

Suppose Islamic Extremist elements in the Pakistani Army, backed by large numbers of Pakistani citizens siezed control of the country? This is a less far fetched scenario daily. Pakistan had strong ties to the Taliban, and it cost their current leadership a great deal of cache to ally itself with America against the Taliban. Every day they see the war on CNN and Al Jhazira. How strong is the current regime in Pakistan?

mburbank · #4

Heres an article I just found (about 1/2 hour after my post) that lends credence;

Iraq War Boosts Militants' Recruiting
Tue Apr 1, 4:01 AM ET

By KATHY GANNON, Associated Press Writer

KARACHI, Pakistan - Riding a wave of anti-American sentiment, outlawed Islamic extremist organizations that were routed by the U.S.-led war in Afghanistan in 2001 are making a comeback

Recruitment in Pakistan of potential terrorists appears to be on the rise. Militant leaders freed from house arrest have returned to the mosques to rally the faithful against the United States.

Muslim radicals are feeding on anger over the war in Iraq to regroup and revitalize, raising the threat of more anti-U.S. terrorism around the world.

ItalianStereotype · #5

that is an excellent question max.

short of resorting to invasion and MAD era politics, i would try to rely on the international community i suppose or any readily availabe regional allies, such as india. i doubt international economic sanctions would do much of anything and it is highly unlikely that they would allow any inspectors in or accept terms of disarmament. invasion would most definitely be a last resort as that would likely mean that a good portion of the ground forces would be slagged.

The_Rorschach · #6

Added a couple new tunes to my Classic Rock comp, and one of them, which happens to be playing, is Neil Diamond's Brother Love's Travelling Salvation Show. Seems somehow fitting with this topic for some reason. But by the time I finish my replies, McClean's Miss America Pie will probably have started. . .Regardless.

"Suppose growing Muslim anger of the war leads to "Regime Change" in Pakistan, thereby placing Nuclear weapons in the hands of Ilsamic extremists?"

As you wish Max. Actually, this was a supposition I rose in my PoliSci class yesterday, all I got for it was derision from my instructor though. I hope you fair better.

"Is this a serious enough contingency to be worth planning for?"

I believe so. Anti-American sentiment has been growing there like infestation in a rotted wound. I was reading, an as yet unconfirmed story, this morning about riots breaking out in Karachi over our actions in Iraq. It may not even take a regime change - With the premier of Egypt coming out and publically attacking the US for our hostile actions, it may only take the fear of a coup to motivate Pakistan into retalitary action. Worst case scenerio, perhaps, but not terribly unlikely.

"If so, what could we do about it?"

Well. . .It really depends upon how many countries Pakistan allies themselves before taking actions. If they stand alone, we'll likely have a few friends with us. India will step in without a moments hesitation, Israel would offer support which we would likely not accept, and if Blair is still around we'll have the Brits and probably the rest of the UK. I add India as they have been openly feuding for quite some time and want only an excuse to invade. If we move quickly enough, we might be able to pacify (read, pre-emptive attacks) them before they have time to launch a nuclear strike.

If they gather a coalition however. . .I think we'll find ourselves in a sea on unfriendly intent. At this point, we may or may not be able to count on India's support. Certainly Israel, but only because they would have even more to lose than we ourselves. . .Our only viable option as I see it, would be to capitulate to their demands, as sad as that sounds.

"If it happens, what should we do?"

Pray Burbank, because if this really does take place, it will make the sacking of Rome look like a training exercise.

AntiMaster · #7

Religious fundamentalists or Nationlistic movements are more often than not a reaction to external/foreign influence or due to an overwhelming concern of losing one's culture, heritage or religion.

A more respectful foreign policy would improve relations with muslim states. We need to put people in office that use more tact in dealing with the middle east & muslim societies. As allies we can enjoy the relative security of the alliance as well as reap the benefits of a free market. Allies after all are our best clients.

The people who are comfortable with the idea of war need to keep in mind that the population of some of these countries is as high as ours & in the case of India, it's considerably higher. We cannot take on the whole world.

In case of the Pakistan question you've raised, we have to find diplomatic means to end any conflict. This is why I've been opposed to the war & the arrogance of this administration. We are further detereorating our relations with the muslim world and creating a whole new generation of terrorists. Nuclear war is not an option and we cannot risk legitimizing the use of nukes.

ItalianStereotype · #8

Quote:

Originally Posted by AntiMaster

Religious fundamentalists or Nationlistic movements are more often than not a reaction to external/foreign influence or due to an overwhelming concern of losing one's culture, heritage or religion.

A more respectful foreign policy would improve relations with muslim states. We need to put people in office that use more tact in dealing with the middle east & muslim societies. As allies we can enjoy the relative security of the alliance as well as reap the benefits of a free market. Allies after all are our best clients.

HAHAHAHAHAHHAHAHAHAAHAHAHAHAHAAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAH AA

wait, wait...

AAAAAAAAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAH

AChimp · #9

Ah, AntiMaster is a Disciple of Chretien.

James · #10

I feel that a country and/or government is a police investigation, and all other countries/goverments/whatever are possible suspects.

If there is good reason to believe someone poses a threat, or is guilty of a crime, then the right is had to scrutinize that suspect.

Then of course, I could go into search warrant and arrest metaphors, but you get the point. If we feel that a country or group or whatever is a potential source for danger to us, then we have the right to protect ourselves by pre-emtping any serious matters.

So, if someone has a hold on nuclear weapons, and say they want to use them on us, we do something about it.

AntiMaster · #11

Quote:

Originally Posted by ItalianStereotype

HAHAHAHAHAHHAHAHAHAAHAHAHAHAHAAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAH AA

wait, wait...

AAAAAAAAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAH

Now listen here Mr. stereotype I'd be very careful laughing at the AntiMaster for one day you could open up that tasty box of 'Count Chocula' and Wham!!! Mold! I mean seriously shitty tasting mold. Yea that's right.

ItalianStereotype · #12

its okay bubby, i only eat booberry and frankenberry. mold away.

mburbank · #13

Shach, the reaction of your Poli sci class is precisely what I see as te problem.

No matter where you stand on the war in Iraq, if you don't recognize the much larger can of worms it opens then you've got your head in the sand. My fear is that the Bush administration is split between those with their heads willfully in the sand and those who are actively eager for an East West conflict that they see as in some way restoring the glory days of the cold war, ie. a world they understood their part in. Either of these attitudes serves the country or the world well.

If the rise of Al Quaeda was the blowback from Gulf War I...

The_Rorschach · #14

Preaching to the choir, my man.

These aren't isolated opinions or countries anymore, coming against the US. Egypt's President came out the day before yesterday rebuking the United States for our aggression against Saddam, and the uneasy feelings of Jordan and the UAE adding silent emphasis to such views. Syria is believed to have been assisting Iraq (I have a couple articles if you're interested). The same generation of students that overtook our Embrassy in Iran in 1979 are in power there today. Saudia Arabia, while not yet withdrawing their support, has already begun to distance themselves from us somewhat. . .

The longer Hussein holds out, the more perilous the situation appears. I realize to a certain degree I tend to fear-monger a bit - With so much at stake, I can't help but dwell on the worse case scenerios - but I don't think I'm being an alarmist in saying this could potentially become a very bad situation and may even be developing into one.

edit: In my mailbox today

Message: 2
Date: Wed, 2 Apr 2003 03:33:23 -0800 (PST)
From: Bob Martin <bob-martin@sbcglobal.net>
Subject: Director of Islamic University in Gaza lauds Saudi Arabia for assistance

Director of Islamic University in Gaza lauds Saudi Arabia for
assistance

http://www.spa.gov.sa/html/archive_e...2/04/2003&wcat
g=0

Gaza, April 2, SPA(Saudi Press Agency) -- The Director of the Islamic
University in Gaza, Dr. Mohammad Shubair lauded the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia for the assistance to the Palestinian universities through the Saudi Committee for the Support of Al-Quds Intifada (uprising).

Dr. Shubair told the Saudi Press Agency (SPA) that the funds allocated to the Islamic University were received and given to every deserving student.
"In the light the harsh circumstances facing the Palestinian people,
this assistance came to uplift huge part of their burden at different
levels," he said. --SPA1119 Local Time 0819 GMT