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mburbank mburbank is offline
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Old Apr 10th, 2003, 10:58 AM        CHALABI WATCH
Dollars to donuts we install Ahmed Chalabi as interim leader in Iraq.

More dollars to more donuts that while nowhere near as brutal as Saddam, he'll still operate as a strongman which we'll initially ignore as he'll be friendly to the US.

Even more Dollars to Even more donuts that it then becomes a fifty fifty shot between
A.) Islamic fundamentalist revolution as when Iran toppled Western Proxy the Shah
or
B.) Chalabi becomes an embarassment to the US and we have to remove him by force as in Noriega in Panama and the Baath party in Iraq.

I would be so incredably happy to be wrong about this. I would rejoice if somehow we can establish a new paradigm here.
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Old Apr 11th, 2003, 12:14 AM       
I find this unlikely. I could've SWORN that this guy was generally considered bad news, but I might be wrong.

I'd be interested to hear what Abcdxxxx has to say on the matter......
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Old Apr 11th, 2003, 01:34 PM       
He is widely disliked and concidered by many primarily a con artist, but he's also the choice of the Iraq hawks, who seem to get what they want.
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Old Apr 11th, 2003, 07:05 PM       
http://www.upi.com/view.cfm?StoryID=...7-055713-8345r

CIA report slams Pentagon's favorite Iraqi

By Eli J. Lake
UPI State Department Correspondent
From the International Desk
Published 4/8/2003 1:55 PM

WASHINGTON, April 7 (UPI) -- The Central Intelligence Agency issued a report
last week claiming that the opposition leader airlifted by the Pentagon to
Iraq over the weekend, Ahmad Chalabi, would not be an effective leader to
replace Saddam Hussein because many Iraqis do not like him.

In a classified report distributed widely within the U.S. government, the
CIA argues that Chalabi, a favorite of Pentagon civilian officials, and
Mohammed Baqr al-Hakim, the leader of the Tehran-based Supreme Council for
the Islamic Revolution in Iraq, have little popular support among Iraqis on
the ground.

Critics of the agency have questioned the report's timing and motives.

"The CIA has been bad mouthing Chalabi and the INC for years. What is
surprising is that they are still devoting resources to their character
assassination effort instead of other more obvious missions," said Randy
Scheunemann, a long time adviser to Chalabi and now President of the
Committee to Liberate Iraq, a lobbying group formed last year to support
ending Saddam Hussein's regime. "Whatever the stories the agency may be
spreading it's clear Centcom Commander Tommy Franks thinks the INC has an
important role to play."

The report comes at a critical time for U.S. policy as coalition forces
enter Baghdad. While publicly senior American officials have said they plan
to include both Iraqi opposition leaders and leaders culled from inside the
country in the next government in Baghdad, behind the scenes hawks and doves
in the administration are fighting a nasty battle over the leadership of the
transition authority that replaces Saddam's regime. Chalabi has long been
supported by a leading hawk, Deputy Defense Secretary Paul Wolfowitz and
other advocates of regime change in Iraq.

Last week Congressional appropriators voted to funnel $2.5 billion to the
State Department for reconstructing the country even though the White House
originally requested the money go to the Pentagon. Senior State Department
officials deny lobbying for the money. Secretary of State Colin Powell,
according to two State Department officials, called the White House from his
plane returning from Brussels last week to complain about a policy memo from
Secretary of Defense Donald Rumsfeld calling on the White House to name the
transition authority for Iraq sooner than expected.

A U.S. official familiar with the CIA report told United Press International
Monday, "This is about the Iraqi interim authority. It discusses the factors
likely to affect the legitimacy and acceptability of an Iraqi transitional
authority in the eyes of the Iraqi public. In part it looks at Iraqi
attitudes toward the Iraqi opposition and how the INC is viewed on the
inside."

A former U.S. intelligence official familiar with the report said, "They
basically say that every time you mention Chalabi's name to an Iraqi, they
want to puke." This official however questioned how accurate the CIA's
assessment of Iraqi politics could be given the fluidity of events on the
ground there.

"I think that nobody has any idea who is popular on the ground inside Iraq,"
said Danielle Pletka, the American Enterprise Institute's Vice President for
Foreign and Defense Policy Studies told UPI. "People who say that they do,
including agencies of the U.S. government, are saying so to further a
political agenda."

When asked about the CIA report on CBS' "60 Minutes" Sunday evening, Chalabi
said it seemed to him the agency "is more focused on me than on Saddam."

The CIA has long considered Chalabi an unsuitable leader for the government
that replaces Saddam. In 1992, while the agency supported Chalabi and an
open strategy to spark a rebellion against Baghdad from the north, they also
pursued a palace coup strategy without telling him. The agency has also held
Chalabi accountable for compromising a coup attempt in 1995, when Saddam's
men rounded up disloyal military officers the agency had hoped would kill
the Iraqi leader.

Last year, the agency released an assessment of intelligence Chalabi's
organization provided to the U.S. government, concluding that approximately
30 percent of it was accurate. However, one key piece of intelligence from
Chalabi's operation was firmed up over the weekend when Marines raided a
terrorist training facility outside of Baghdad in Salman Pak. Defectors
slipped out of the country over a year ago by Chalabi's Iraqi National
Congress said the facility trained numerous al-Qaida fighters. A spokesman
for U.S. Central Command said over the weekend the U.S. military had
concluded the facility was being used for terrorist training.

The agency has also blamed Chalabi for predicting Iraqis would welcome
American troops in the initial phases of the war, though recent reporting
from al-Najaf and Basra suggests that the opposition leader's optimism may
not have been as misplaced as at first thought.

Copyright © 2001-2003 United Press International
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Old Apr 11th, 2003, 07:37 PM       
Yeah, it does look like Chalabi's getting the interim job, or at least he seems confident of this... he's apparently already acting political, and making demands on the US for rushed humanitarian aid...and also stating an Iraqi should get the job...which I think we all agree with him on. He might be shooting himself in the foot if he goes overboard on the press conferences though. It doesn't sound like even he expects to get the job for any long term basis...and really, it's a lot more revolutionary to watch a bunch of Iraqi exiles come back to town and take over then the other rumors....such as a former Shell oil exec. running the interim. The Iraqi National Congress are a diverse body...so it's not all about one guy and his white collar crimes or other shiftyness. A firm hand doesn't mean another totalitarian ruler. Anyway, we can't force democracy...look at Haiti for proof. Whoever goes in will build a new school system, and skip the acid bath torture chambers.... and people will finally be able to apply their educations freely within an Arabic nation...and things will improve. I doubt we have to fear another Iran....under it's current state, this is just the spark the Iranians need to finally get the change they've been quickly inching towards.

The other thing is... it looks like they might chop Iraq up into a nation with a troika rulership of some sort.
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Old Apr 11th, 2003, 08:37 PM       
Doh! Spinster posted that article already, and I even responded to the thread. :P

Sure, Chalabi will be better than Hussein was, but that isn't saying much. The question now isn't whether he's a bad guy, the question now is whether or not he's an honest guy, and a competent guy.

I hope the anarchy and the looting in Baghdad isn't a sign of things to come, because whoever the future leader is then will have similar problems to that of Karzai in Afghanistan, me thinks.

Regardless, America needs to simply provide the infrastructure for a free, open, untainted election, and for God's sake, let the Iraqi people finally pick their own leader.

Quote:
Originally Posted by Abcdxxxx
The other thing is... it looks like they might chop Iraq up into a nation with a troika rulership of some sort.
An independent Kurdistan....?
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Old Apr 11th, 2003, 09:44 PM       
yeah, the talk was to create a Kurdistan..and then I think the idea was to also create a Turkemon to bribe peace between the two factions. That was the word around a year or so ago, so something could have changed during recent negotiations.... I for one don't think the bombing of the Kurdish Generals was an accident...or the 'accidental" hits on Turkey.
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Old Apr 11th, 2003, 10:19 PM       
oh and i think it was expected that whatever is left of iraq would go to the shiite's with an ayatollah rulership... but iraq's had some very liberal periods, and i personally think they're going to be eager to return to that.
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Old Apr 12th, 2003, 09:29 AM       
The Moderate Shiite Cleric who returned to Iraq has already been assasinated. Apparently his military escort went off to get the press for a photo op and by the time they got back he and the hardline shiite cleric he was supposed to be meeyting had both been killed. So thiongs are off to a pretty good start.
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Old Apr 13th, 2003, 01:54 AM       
http://www.islam-online.net/English/...rticle08.shtml

Iraq’s Liberation Front Attempts To Assassinate Chalabi


By Abdul Raheem Ali, IOL Cairo Staff

CAIRO, April 12 (IslamOnline.net) - A number of armed people belonging to the nascent National Front For The Liberation of Iraq (NFLI) tried Friday, April11 , to assassinate Ahmad Chalabi, one of the prominent exile leaders and head of the Iraqi National Council (INC), in the southern city of An-Nasiriyah.

“They attacked a camp of Chalabi’s devotees, leaving a number of them killed,” Abdul Amir El-Rakabi, an Iraqi exile, told IslamOnline.net on Saturday, April12 .

“They narrowly missed Chalabi,” he added.

The NFLI released Friday a statement entitled "Aggression Ends, Liberation Begins", a copy of which was obtained by IslamOnline.net.

The statement said the new front “comprises local representatives of armed groups and resistance brigades, some still manning positions in Iraq along with Arab volunteer fighters.”

“The front also is regrouping a host of Iraq’s elite Republican Guard units and special forces after being disintegrated. Iraq may lose the war, but it would never surrender or die," underlined the statement.

As for the U.S. plans to install former army general Jay Garner in power in post-war Iraq, the Liberation Front underlined that the “Iraqi people will neither allow this Zionist general who is a personal friend to the Israeli Prime Minister Ariel Sharon to rule them nor the thief of Baghdad Ahmad Chalabi.”

The front further rebuffed other prominent Iraqi exiles such as Nezar al-Khazrgi, Nuri Abdul Razek, Mahdi Hafez, Adham al-Samra’I and their “ilk, as well as CIA (Central Intelligence Agency) and Mossad (Israeli Intelligence) agents.”

Opposition Leaders Flock Home

In the meantime, a number of the national Iraqi exiles came home to heal the rift and help regroup Iraq’s mosaic powers to stand up to the invaders and force them out.

Rakabi said that Mohammed Baqir An-Nasiri, a prominent Shiite figure, came back to his home town of An-Nasiriyah, where he was given a welcome reception.

“His comeback would definitely produce a ground-shaking effect since he is one of Iraq’s national icons, who vehemently oppose colonialism and the U.S. presence in Iraq. He would boost the morale of the Iraqis and make them act in unison in the face of the occupying forces,” he said.
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Old Apr 13th, 2003, 02:03 AM       
NFLI ? Well perhaps now we know what all those Syrians who snuck over the border are up to.
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Old Apr 13th, 2003, 02:07 AM       
Actually AB, thats what I was going to say a prelude to the article, but I couldn't help but think Ronnie would follow that up with something like "CONSPIRACY! CONSPIRACY!"
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Old Apr 13th, 2003, 02:08 PM       
Weren't a lot of those Syrians exiled Iraqis anyway...?
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Old Apr 13th, 2003, 04:23 PM       
Iraq swallowed up a chunk of Syria, maybe that's what you mean?

What's interesting is Iraqi exiles rarely admit where they're from. The NY Times ran a recent article on the origins of Arabic transplants to New York, and listed only 1200 from Iraq, while the numbers from Syria, Jordan and Lebanon were ten times that. You'll meet a lot of Christians and Jews that calls themselves Syrians, but very few who consider themselves Iraqis.

If they were Iraqi exiles then wouldn't that mean they were attempting to "liberate" Iraq from Saddam rather then defend the Baathist's from US occupation. The name bares great resemblance to the PLFP and other Palestinian groups... and we know they found training camps associated with Hezzbaloh etc. Seems as if they're acting as paid mercenaries.
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Old Apr 14th, 2003, 02:23 AM       
Quote:
Originally Posted by Abcdxxxx
If they were Iraqi exiles then wouldn't that mean they were attempting to "liberate" Iraq from Saddam rather then defend the Baathist's from US occupation.
The things I have read seemed to imply that it was more complicated than this. Yes, many hated Saddam, but at the same time despised the notion of the evil West coming to get rid of him. Other accounts in Baghdad seem to reflect the same thing.

However, I agree, it wouldn't be the first time a foreign entity has posed as a nationalist liberation front (Hizbollah being a good example, as you suggested, I think).
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Old Apr 14th, 2003, 04:23 PM       
Glad you think so Kev, the military is reporting that the majority of non-Iraqi combatants fighting against the Coallition forces are Syrian in origin ( http://www.spacewar.com/2003/030414123325.of0iuejw.html ), but thats not why I'm posting here.

The CIA candidate to lead Iraq has been assassinated. Chalabi might end up with the job if noone can be kept alive long enough to rival him for it:

http://www.albawaba.com/news/index.p...ang=e&dir=news

"Nizar Khazraji, a prominent Iraqi general who defected to the
West, was assassinated Monday on his way to attend a U.S.-called
meeting of opposition groups in the southern city of Nassiriya."
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Old Apr 14th, 2003, 05:21 PM       
Yikes. I'm not even seeing lists of potential candidates and their backgrounds. When someone is considered for a position in the Palestinian Authority (for example) there is usually a lot of background information out there to be had. I wouldn't be shocked if a lot of these choices in Iraq were pretty sketchy.

As for Chalabi - it might be to his advantage that he's been away from the scene a bit, yet still has some undercover allies within the Baathist party. I doubt the UN will ever recognize him as the leader of Iraq. That's a problem.

Fox News has started bringing on analysts to talk about the troika option I mentioned above... so I guess that vision isn't totally dead yet.
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Old Apr 15th, 2003, 12:59 AM       
Apparently the Shiites have their own plans:

http://ap.tbo.com/ap/breaking/MGAMHPQTIED.html

"The Emirate of Saddam City?"
Baghdad Neighborhood Falls to Clerical Rule in Post-Saddam Void

By Hamza Hendawi Associated Press Writer
Published: Apr 14, 2003

BAGHDAD, Iraq (AP) - A Baghdad district that is home to 2 million Shiite Muslims has practically seceded from the rest of Iraq. Led by local clerics, Saddam City now runs its own police force, hospitals, clinics and food distribution centers.

Saddam City's autonomy, won in the power vacuum left by the fall of Iraq's government, doesn't bode well for the future of this heterogeneous nation after the ouster of Saddam Hussein, whose rule held the disparate religious and ethnic groups together.

Shiites make up about 60 percent of Iraq's 24 million people and more than half of Baghdad's 5 million residents. In a post-Saddam Iraq, Shiite leaders say they want a share of power that reflects their numbers, something that would end the traditional monopoly over political power by Arabs from Islam's mainstream Sunni sect.

A show of Shiite power, like that in Saddam City, is likely to rile Sunnis, leading to tensions or violence. Additionally, for a part of Iraq to seek autonomy could produce a domino effect in a country whose very nationhood is somewhat fragile - it was once three separate Ottoman provinces and came to exist within its present borders less than a 100 years ago.

Besides the Shiites, who have a long history of restiveness, Iraq has a large Kurdish minority that tirelessly aspires for autonomy. The fault lines in Iraqi society also run along tribal and territorial lines.

Saddam, a Sunni Arab, has for years driven wedges between tribes to weaken them and fed Sunni-Shiite rivalry to consolidate his own power. Inter-Shiite differences, in which Saddam has played a part, occasionally boil over. Last week, for example, a mob in Iraq's holy city of Najaf hacked to death a Shiite cleric who had returned from exile.

In Saddam City, a young cleric ominously hinted Monday that handing back authority over the densely populated neighborhood to a central government may be less than certain.

Ali al-Gharawi, 22, also said that he and other Saddam City leaders take their orders from the "al-hawza al-ilmiyah," the Arabic phrase for the top Shiite clerics of Najaf.

"I don't think that any central government, if such a body is ever to take office, will offer comprehensive protection for us," said Gharawi, in reply to a question on whether he and others would relinquish power in Saddam City when a new central government takes office.

Everything in Saddam City suggests power is firmly in the hands of the clerics and that the area's mosques are functioning as the centers of power. There also are many telltale signs that a central, albeit concealed, power is in existence.

Al-Gharawi, underlining his newly found authority, said he met twice with a U.S. military commander deployed near Saddam City and from whom he won approval that neighborhood patrols could keep their light arms while on duty.

Raad Ahmed, a Shiite activist sentenced to death in 2002 but released by Saddam in a mass pardon last fall, said local gunmen have handed over to U.S. troops five Arab volunteers who came to Iraq to fight U.S. and British forces.

Notices, signs and graffiti in Saddam City also attest to a government-like authority.

"Electricity is the property of everyone, so protect it," reads graffiti outside a power installation. "Dear brother: you can return the state's looted money here," reads a sign.

Activists say clinics and four hospitals in the area are now run by volunteers. Food forcibly confiscated along with other items from looters by patrols operating under clerical supervision is given to hospitals.

Al-Gharawi said thousands of armed volunteers enforce peace in the area from dusk to dawn, preventing anyone from leaving or entering Saddam City. On Monday afternoon, however, armed men manned checkpoints, searching vehicles and passengers. Other gunmen were deployed on the rooftop of the local telephone exchange and outside mosques.

Shiites, who have long complained of persecution under Saddam, manifested the dawn of a new era in the manner they worshipped at a holy shrine on Monday.

They openly wept over the "martyrdom" of Imam al-Hussein, one of their most revered saints, and venerated images of him. There was no sign of Saddam's plainclothes policemen who routinely mingled with worshippers at Shiite shrines.

Black banners symbolizing the grief over al-Hussein's death were hoisted over the walls in the shrine's inner plaza. In words that would have been unthinkable less than a week ago, a sign announced: "Every day is Ashoura and every land is Karbala."

Ashoura is the name given to the day on which al-Hussein was killed in battle in the 7th century and Karbala is a holy Shiite city southwest of Baghdad, where he is buried.

"All that Shiites want is to be closer to God," Mohammed Ali, a noncommissioned officer who deserted his post a day before the U.S.-led war on Iraq began March 20, said as he squatted in the plaza.

"But we cannot rule out trouble from the Sunnis now that we have some freedom," chipped in Salman Hashem, another worshipper at the Baghdad shrine.
-30-
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Old Apr 15th, 2003, 11:45 AM       
I read this one pretty quick but this too looks in line with the troika idea. I think it's a good idea that they're self governing as long as the Sunni's aren't about to face persecution now instead. The Shiite's were always set to take over Saddam's old Iraq under that plan. Maybe I didn't read this close enough.
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Old Apr 15th, 2003, 06:48 PM       
It seemed to imply the possibility of a clash in the future.

It doesn't sound very democratic, either.

EDIT: Another note worthy problem. How and where are the troika division lines drawn? Who decides how much the Kurds get? It sounds like the Shiite could pretty much take Baghdad. Will that ruffle any other feathers?
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Old Apr 15th, 2003, 10:44 PM       
Okay whatever I read describing this Troika thing in detail seems to have vanished, but as I remember it, the Shiites do take over Baghdad under the plan, and oil is split evenly by a commision. Then I also vaguely recall the oil being controlled by our new puppet Shiite government while the areas in the North would get carved up to appease the neighbors.

The latest stuff I'm reading from various sources is that the US had all factions meet in London last month and this is already well planned out. It sounds like Jalal Talabani, 69 year old chief of the Patriotic Union of Kurdistan is the number one candidate for the PM of Iraq. He attempted a fail coup against the Baath party in the Seventies, and sought refuge in Iran. So the US has already been putting out feelers on how people feel about this and so far so good...accept for Turkey who seem to be flip flopping (and their back and forth agreements with the allies are proof). Turkey's original role was to secure the oil fields, and air strips in the North... and there were reports that did just that a good 8 months before the actual war (or around the same time out Special Forces went in)

They've planned 18 months for the interim stabalization period during which the US miltary commander and a civilian office will run the government. It solves the problem of losing Iraq's Sunni commanded fighting force by utilizing two US trained Kurdish militias. Talabani's PUK and the Kurdistan Democratic Party led by his rival Massoud Barzani, head of the Kurdistan Democratic party (who has ties with Iran's Revolutionary Gaurds). These two forces, around 40,000 strong, would become the backbone of the new Iraqi army to defend the Sunni's who we know are a minority against the Shiites. Now that the Sunni rulership has fallen they're realistic about the fears of a Shiite government coming in, so they're supporting this other option instead. What's interesting with that is the Kurds were never considered true Iraqis by ANYONE.

Take all that with a grain of salt. Anything they're going to do out there would be problematic.
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Old Apr 16th, 2003, 09:24 AM       
I will be amazed if the Kurds end up with anything, let alone the Prime Ministry of Iraq.

My guess is the won't even get to keep the territory in Northern Iraq that's been their defacto state for the last ten years.
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Old Apr 16th, 2003, 11:40 AM       
Some Kurds have been forcing Iraqis OUT of the northern space, essentially taking the land. I don't know if anybody could take that from them now without a fight.....
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