World War III???

[mburbank]

I strongly believe W is leading up to withdrawl from the UN. Absolutely Israel would follow.

The potential for escalation lies not only in our actions, but in the doctrines they represent.

A scenario:
China surprisingly supports the UN resolution for war on Iraq. They also begin to put pressure on Client state North Korea. Shortly after a coalition including the Chinese invade, a large scale terrorist strike hits Beijing. The Chinese say they have proof(which cannot be shown beyond vague satelite pictures because the harder evidence is too sensative) it was the work of Taiwanese seperatists, and announce their intention to repatriate the island as a purely preemptive measure required by their national security. Should we threaten retalliation They will actively support North Korea's security goals. Russia, who might well have supported see this as leverage in their access to affordable Iraqi oil and delay any decision.

Another:
WMD are used by Al Quaeda against American interests in India. India is certain the Pakistani government supplied the weapons, but America pursues a theory that Iraq supplied the weapons, proving what we've been warning all along. India believes we know the Pakistani's are responsible but won't say so because of Pakistan's strategic influence in the region. With Significant support in the UN, India invades a preemtive invasion of Kashmir to root out terrorists, sparking a massive conventional war which could go nuclear.

The United states should be expending the wealth and power we are preparing to use for war to build and support global economic equity and a world court system. Is that a perilous path frought with the possability of suffering? Absolutely. But the path we are already more than half way down is as well. The path of peace could well feature horrible devastation up to and including the loss of entire cities. The path of war could lead to WWIII and complete chaos or near global anihilation.

The Chinese have made no secret they believe Taiwan belongs to them. India's national security actually is threatened by Pakistan. Do you think if foreign terrorists had entered our congress and killed several senators, we would have restrained ourselves to the degree India has as far a rettaliation goes? We as merican's tend to see the world through the lense of our national interest and passions, and this is natural. But we should not be blinded to the fact that this other countries see the world through the lense of their interests, their passions, which are no weaker than ours.

WWI was caused by multiple factors, but the triggering event was a single assasination by an Anarchist. I think we stand at such a juncture. The Anarchist who shot Arch Duke Ferdinand certinly got a lot of the Anarchy he wanted (althouigh not the ultimate destruction of all governments). I worry, likewise that before all is said and done, Bin Laden will have sparked far more suffering nd change then he dreamed of on September 11.

I do not by any means think a Third World War is unavoidable. But these are perilous times and we are standing on the brink. It will take wise people of great good will and vision all over the world to avert this.