Haiti, Bush, Next Big Mess

[Zhukov]

I'd never thought as Aristide as very progressive... no matter how left wing the US might think he is, hebrely passes as a reformist in my eyes. But the rebels are obviously much worse. Theyare former death squad and military leaders from the disbanded army, they were formerly called "the Cannibals" and are now renamed the Gonaives Resistance Front aftr taking the city f Gonaives and declarng an indipendant nation. No really, they did.

The GRF are headed by Buter Metayer, who was a former Aristide supporter.

The mainstream opposition, including groups such as the Group of 184 and the Convergence Democratique have distanced themselves from the GRF as of late, but were previously encouraging them as they felt they could come to power on the back of a coup against Aristide.

Aristides government only has a police force of about 4000, and are out gunned by the paramilitaries.

"We have machetes and guns, and we will resist. The police might have been scared, but the people got together and organized…We blocked the streets."

-Pierre Frandley tells the Associated Press 02/20/2004


A successful coup would obviously be a nightmare for the Haitian people, as the old paramilitaries who instated a murderous regime in the early 1990s would exact a terrible revenge upon Aristide, his supporters, and the Haitian workers and urban poor.

I think the US will wait until Aristde is overthrown and then step in to supress the rebels (who are the major minority btw) and install someone more right wing than Aristide. Whoever takes power, you can bet that they will speak French.