Sep 6th, 2004, 01:37 PM
The reality of national polls in a presidential race.....
They don't matter, because electoral votes decide the election, not popular votes. While they could definitely create a snow ball effect, ultimately, statewide polls hold more weight. You could "randomly" poll liberals living in Texas, oklahoma, Alabama, and Alaska for their opinions, and they might tell you they support John Kerry. Too bad their states are already spoken for.
I just thought that should be said, since everybody, including Kerry apparently, are getting all emotional over these poll numbers. Let's think logically about this. Where does a 10 point bump come from with an electorate that's so polarized? Did the convention "bump" these people? obviously not, because both of these polls were conducted throughout the convention, not after it. Furthermore, who watches the conventions? Do they tend to draw and swing undecideds, or do they serve as Party pep rallies? Do they win people over, or do they energize the base? With the pool of undecideds falling at about 10%, where does this massive post-convention bump come from....?
Wisconsin, according to more recent polls, is closer to kerry than Bush. Jersey, once considered up for grabs, is solidly Kerry. States like Missouri, Tennessee, Arizona, and Nevada are still up for grabs. These are all states that ultimately went with Bush, but potentially could swing towards Kerry.
My point? We have a long election left. We still have debates coming up. This is the point, traditionally, where Kerry kicks it in high gear (we know this from his previous campaigning experience, which he has a lot more of than Bush, btw). I don't know who's going to win this election, but let's not let two mostly irrelevant polls get blown out of proportion.
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