Just answer the questions please, John!

[Preechr]

I didn't really say they HAVE to be meaningless. I think the net result of them so far, on those that are just now tuning into the election campaign, has not edged them in either direction.

I still say that the elections in Afghanistan... this Saturday... will help Bush tremendously. Kerry & Edwards need to be doing better than tit for tat this week, because next week, assuming Afghanistan doesn't just blow up, people will be less likely to believe the Democrat position that the entire Middle Eastern escapade has gone horribly, horribly wrong thanks to bad leadership.

Even a marginally successful election in Afghanistan will make many people less uneasy that the Iraq situation has deteriorated to the point that their elections are a foregone conclusion. We here all know the two things have little to do with one another, but Kerry and Edwards won't be able to sell that point successfully before the election. In fact, doing so will make them look worse.

This week: "It's all bad... VERY bad..."

Next week: "Ok, that wasn't bad, but the rest of it is STILL very bad..."

That's not gonna be believeable. It's a long-shot to win this election with a message based in negativity. It's an entirely different thing to appear pessimistic. So far, they've ridden that line successfully. Good news from Afghanistan could be very hard for them to counter.

Have the debates helped prepare them for this? No. The debates should be setting in stone the idea that Bush and Cheney are no better than Bobo and his Amazing Sock Puppet when it comes to winning the war on terror BEFORE Saturday, so Americans will look at the Afghan election cynically. All the debate over foreign policy is done now. Friday will be domestic issues only. Saturday, the news hits the streets that Team Bush has successfully gotten the Democratic Ball rolling in the first country it regime-changed, and Iraq's turn is just a few months away.

By extension, the outlook for Iraq will suddenly appear less bleak. All Kerry & Edwards' talk of how bad things were going in Afghanistan will appear to have been foolish partisan jibberjabber contrived to make Bush look bad. Opium-Shmopium... All successful countries have drug problems... If Afghanistan can self-govern despite the "distraction" of Iraq, then so can Iraq.

This election is a referendum on Iraq. This Saturday, Kerry's campaign dies. Months ago, I had predicted Saddam's trial would be happening now as well, which would have sealed the coffin on Kerry's bid... but that isn't coming to pass.

Either way, what's actually happening will be enough.