Just answer the questions please, John!

[Preechr]

If Karzai gets assassinated, Team Bush© will paint it as an example of how dedicated backward-ass towel-heads are to the idea of self-government. He, like most of the political candidates in Iraq as well as Afghanistan, was risking his life for the cause of freedom. "We cannot let his personal sacrifice be made in vain. What will the Afghan people think if we elect a President that sends moxie marfingles?"

Cheney already set the stage with his personal memories of El Salvadoran bravery in the face of insurgency on election day. Violence will spotlight the "resolve" and "determination" of the Afghan people, which is already lined up to be a Bush slam-dunk.

International observers have already made whatever objections they had about the electoral process, and they've pledged to refrain from questioning the results whatever they may look like. With 18 candidates running in the French round-robin style and a virtual pass on any circumspection, the chances of the election not happening are almost nil.

That's what I mean by a blow up. If on Saturday Afghanistan manages to come up with anything even remotely close to a Presidential Election, Bush gets a big bonus hit that Kerry's not likely to overcome. The only way that's not going to happen is if the entire country gets physically blown up. That's the only scenario that would result in a non-election that I can see, and I'm not even sure that wouldn't help Bush somehow...

Sure it's largely a symbolic thing, but so is our own election if you want to get picky about it...

If the majority of voters cast ballots believing Iraq is a part of the larger war on terror while feeling less than absolutely sure the situation over there is spinning wildly out of control, Bush wins.

That's what this election boils down to:

A. Is Iraq a legitimate self-defense measure?

and

B. Is there any hope at all for Iraq to self-rule?

Kerry has elected to not pursue A enough to sway anyone, only going so far as to infrequently call it a diversion... which only makes him look more irresolute, and Saturday nails B down so close to the election I'm not sure there's time for the Dems to spin it away without looking desperate or dangerously pessimistic.

Now, if Australia boots Howard... also on Saturday... Kerry could make some hay over the loss of an important coalition partner due to Bush's misconceived war, but I'm not convinced that can overshadow the beginnings of success in the Middle East. Voting Bush will still smell an awful lot like believing in America on November 2.

Remember, the vast majority of the swing voter sect are MIDDLE AGED WHITE WOMEN. Kerry has failed so far to make domestic issues a higher priority than foreign policy simply because this demographic isn't as concerned with tax cuts and healthcare when terrorists are coming to eat their babies. I don't think Kerry and Edwards have enough Security Daddy in their collective image to be convincing replacements for Cowboy Bush and Rough and Tumble Cheney if there's any perceived hope to be had in Iraq.

The smallest seed of hope will be all that's needed. Consider who we're talking about here. Bush and Cheney have been making what we consider to be mistakes of ommission in their campaign here and there, but what's really happening is that they're focused on this campaign tactic so intensely that they feel like they have room to scoff at the rest of the issues Kerry thinks will win the day for him. Cheney all but left the room last night when the discussion shifted to domestic policy. Bush knew his only goal in last week's debate with Kerry was to call his determination into question. He did that well enough, but also spent most of the rest of the time looking like he had no time to waste on whatever crap those idiots wanted him to talk about. He floundered through the 99% of the debate he didn't bother to prepare for.