I'm majoring in Actuarial science.
You are outclassed mother fucker.
As for your dependence on mathmatical probability in matters of politics: No. :/
You are trying to reduce an issue to a mathmatical system that is far simpler (math is logical, simple, consise) than that of national diplomacy, which depends on the decisions and actions of men (men are ilogical, complex, violent, dumb) who undoubtedly deviate from any mathmatical conclusion you could draw.
Math is everywhere, and I like that you try to encorporate it into real life. But at least for matters such as the impending war, its simply not applicable.
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