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Preechr Preechr is offline
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Join Date: Jun 2003
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Preechr is probably a spambot
Old Feb 20th, 2006, 05:42 PM       
I believe the (for lack of a better term) Neo-Con agenda is more hyper-ambitious than insane. I think their original "whatever it takes" attitude toward the Democratization of the Middle East allowed for direct action against Iran and N. Korea, but that their experiences in Iraq have taught them better.

So, no... I doubt we're sending troops into Iran anytime soon, and bombing is also likely off the table, decades after bombing was proven ineffective. I agree with your "Forever War" idea, but I think we're looking at something more like one of our Wars on _____ than an actual shooting war.

Either way, we don't have time. I'd fully expect to see at least two years of a ramp up to invasion with plenty of posturing and bluster, and that's a bit difficult to plan with an election interrupting it. Now, when a Republican wins in 08, he'll likely enter office with a hard stance against whatever remains of the not yet Democratic Kingdoms of Arabia. It's hard to say what the Middle East will look like two years from now, though.

Will a large scale terrorist attack in the mean time matter? I doubt it, whether the attack is successful or not. The time factor is still in play, and Rove will see way too many campaign benefits in stalling to follow any other path. A new attack within a year will guarantee a Republican win in 08 and no substantive response until after the elections.

With no new attack, we will most likely be limited to applying other, non-war pressures on Iran. That being said, I think that even with an attack, given the time constraints of the election cycle, direct military action against Iran won't be feasible.

So, long story left long but then nut-shelled at the end: No, Bush does not intend to go to war with Iran, and furthermore, I don't see it happening even if we had the best excuses to do so. We're in for one of those "tense stand-offs" interrupted only briefly by Israel blowing up what Iran thought were it's secret nuclear research facilities using agents on the ground inserted from American controlled Iraq... probably flying in in our helicopters... rather than the expected air strike as was used against Saddam.
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mburbank~ Yes, okay, fine, I do know what you meant, but why is it not possible for you to get through a paragraph without making all the words cry?

How can someone who obviously thinks so much of their ideas have so little respect for expressing them? How can someone who so yearns to be taken seriously make so little effort?!
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